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Chaotic Economic Dynamics$
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Richard M. Goodwin

Print publication date: 1990

Print ISBN-13: 9780198283355

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2003

DOI: 10.1093/0198283350.001.0001

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Growing in Short and Long Waves: Schumpeter

Growing in Short and Long Waves: Schumpeter

(p.41) 4 Growing in Short and Long Waves: Schumpeter
Chaotic Economic Dynamics

Richard M. Goodwin

Oxford University Press

Combines long and short waves of innovation. A model is constructed in which demand effects enhance an innovation logistic: innovation is preceded by investment, which stimulates demand, in turn facilitating the spread of the innovation. Each innovative burst produces a wave of output growth. A major innovation (e.g. steam, electricity) with a 50‐year logistic can distort an underlying 8‐year economic cycle, producing a great boom followed by a bust. A limitation of the model is that each wave returns to its initial level. A continuous time model with a growth cycle (and a Rössler attractor) overcomes this limitation.

Keywords:   cycles, demand, innovation, investment, Joseph, Kondratiev, long wave theory, output, Rössler attractor, Schumpeter

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