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The Business of Economics$
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John Kay

Print publication date: 1996

Print ISBN-13: 9780198292227

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2003

DOI: 10.1093/0198292228.001.0001

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The Failures of Forecasting

The Failures of Forecasting

(p.9) 2 The Failures of Forecasting
The Business of Economics

John Kay (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

Using data on previous forecasts, this widely influential 1995 FT article criticizes the reliability and usefulness of economic forecasts. Contrary to the widespread belief that economists always disagree, it shows that economic forecasts typically fall into quite a narrow range, but that the range rarely includes the outcome.

Keywords:   economic forecasts, growth, inflation, interest rates, macroeconomic models, wise men

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