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Major RecessionsBritain and the World 1920-1995$
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Christopher Dow

Print publication date: 2000

Print ISBN-13: 9780199241231

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2003

DOI: 10.1093/0199241236.001.0001

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Supply and Demand Influences on the Rate of Growth

Supply and Demand Influences on the Rate of Growth

(p.57) 4 Supply and Demand Influences on the Rate of Growth
Major Recessions

Christopher Dow

Oxford University Press

This book is mostly about demand, and how in the short term fluctuations in demand cause fluctuations in output and productivity growth. Over the longer term, major variations in growth rates have undoubtedly originated from the supply rather than the demand side. The aim of this chapter is to summarize what is known in general about variations in the rate of growth; and to argue that the kind of effects that supply‐side factors have is different from what is needed to explain the abrupt short‐term falls in output that occur in major recessions. The discussion thus touches on a large subject of which knowledge is incomplete, but since its relevance is indirect, discussion is brief and touches only on what is essential for the present purpose: Sect. 4.1 summarizes what is known about variations in growth rates; Sect. 4.2 first gives a general explanation––eclectic but not basically novel for the process of growth, and then goes on to offer explanations for some particular ways in which growth rates have varied since 1920; Sect. 4.3 summarizes conclusions. There are two short appendices: Appendix A4.l is a note on growth accounting and two other studies of growth; Appendix A4.2 gives estimates of the growth of output and exports of manufactures of six countries from 1870 to 1970.

Keywords:   demand, economic growth, exports, growth accounting, growth rate, manufactures, output, productivity, recession, supply

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