From Individual Behavior to Aggregate Fertility Dynamics
From Individual Behavior to Aggregate Fertility Dynamics
Shifts the emphasis from individual behaviour in the presence of social interactions to aggregate fertility dynamics. In particular, the chapter considers the implications of using non‐linear models in empirical and theoretical models of social interactions and fertility. We show that with non‐linear models, there may be both low and high contraceptive‐use equilibria rather than just one equilibrium as in linear models. A sustained fertility decline can occur if a population experiences a transition from a low to a high contraceptive‐use equilibrium. These transitions occur at a rapid pace—consistent with the empirical findings on past and present fertility declines—and they are often irreversible once they are initiated.
Keywords: feedback effects, fertility decline, linear models, multiple equilibria, non‐linear models, social interaction
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