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Conditional ReasoningThe Unruly Syntactics, Semantics, Thematics, and Pragmatics of "If"$
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Raymond Nickerson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780190202996

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190202996.001.0001

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The Probability of the Conditional and the Conditional Probability

The Probability of the Conditional and the Conditional Probability

(p.229) 10 The Probability of the Conditional and the Conditional Probability
Conditional Reasoning

Raymond S. Nickerson

Oxford University Press

This chapter reviews the debate regarding whether the probability of the conditional, p(If A then C), should be considered equivalent to the conditional probability, p(C|A), and considers the evidence regarding whether people, in fact, behave as though they believe this equivalence holds. It concludes with consideration of the merits of treating conditional reasoning with probabilistic reasoning, on balance.

Keywords:   conditional probability, confirmation bias, contraposition, probabilistic logic, probability of conditional

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