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Conditional ReasoningThe Unruly Syntactics, Semantics, Thematics, and Pragmatics of "If"$
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Raymond Nickerson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780190202996

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190202996.001.0001

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Conditional Reasoning as Probabilistic Reasoning

Conditional Reasoning as Probabilistic Reasoning

(p.197) 9 Conditional Reasoning as Probabilistic Reasoning
Conditional Reasoning

Raymond S. Nickerson

Oxford University Press

This chapter argues that most conditional statements that one is likely to encounter outside the psychological laboratory are not intended to be taken as certainly true, but rather that they are more likely to be taken as usually true, that is, true with some probability less than 1. This realization leads to the idea that conditional statements might best be taken as probabilistic. The chapter discusses arguments that have been made for and against this idea.

Keywords:   defeasibility, probabilistic validity, probability, uncertainty

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