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States in DisguiseCauses of State Support for Rebel Groups$
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Belgin San-Akca

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780190250881

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190250881.001.0001

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Rebels’ Selection Model

Rebels’ Selection Model

5 Rebels’ Selection Model
States in Disguise

Belgin San-Akca

Oxford University Press

This chapter presents empirical findings about the Rebels’ Selection Model and de facto support by state supporters. Beginning with a brief case study of Chad and the rebel groups located there, such as MOSANAT and FROLINAT, since the nation’s founding, the chapter reiterates the hypotheses and presents a multivariate statistical analysis. An analysis of 342 cases of de facto support, through rebel selection, confirms the proposed hypotheses. Rebels are less likely to choose weak states; rather, they prefer strong states as safe havens. They seek the highest level of support from adversaries or rivals of their target states and from those with whom they share some ideational ties. Democratic states are most often preferred as safe havens for rebel leaders, who seek asylum abroad and locations from which to operate offices for peaceful propaganda and getting financial and logistics aid.

Keywords:   rebel selection, ideational ties, weak states, de facto support, democratic states, safe havens, Chad, MOSANAT, FROLINAT, Financial and logistics aid

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