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The Road Ahead for America's Colleges and Universities$
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Robert B. Archibald and David H. Feldman

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780190251918

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: July 2017

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190251918.001.0001

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Internal Threat II

Internal Threat II

Will Students Keep Coming?

(p.86) 5 Internal Threat II
The Road Ahead for America's Colleges and Universities

Robert B. Archibald

Oxford University Press

Demographic trends and changes in the perceived value of a degree both can have significant effects on the demand for higher education. Demographic changes in the United States are unlikely to reduce the demand for places in college overall, but falling high school enrollment in the Northeast and Midwest will pressure financially weaker schools in those regions. On average, the payoff to a college degree has grown substantially. The chapter shows that the return to marginal students may also be quite high. Lastly, the evidence from labor markets indicates that a college education is not simply correlated with higher income. It helps cause higher income.

Keywords:   demographic forecasts, economic return to a college degree, college matching, selection bias, sheepskin effect, natural experiment, signaling, screening

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