Selling the Future: The Perils of Predicting Global Politics
Ariel Colonomos
Abstract
In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes “wonks”, scholars, and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, the further the relationship between knowledge and power intensifies—especially the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. This book analyzes today’s knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think-tanks, and rati ... More
In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes “wonks”, scholars, and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, the further the relationship between knowledge and power intensifies—especially the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. This book analyzes today’s knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think-tanks, and rating agencies. It explains why conservative and linear predictions prevail, and why the future reflects a systematic search for stability, especially when linked to national interest. The notion of a globalized world whose main characteristic is speed—and where predictions have accelerating, self-fulfilling effects—is obsolete. Those who are supposed to know reassure those who are supposed to act. When their preferences converge, the industry of the future has a decelerating effect on world politics. These “lords of knowledge” reinforce pre-existing beliefs, create expectations about the future, while obstructing its vision when—inevitably—it diverges from its orderly path. Based on this explanation of the role of the future in global politics, this book also develops a normative analysis of what predictions and forecasts ought to be in a democratic society.
Keywords:
Future,
Future-telling,
Time,
Predictions,
Forecasts,
Globalization,
Expertise,
Think tanks,
Rating agencies,
Norms
Bibliographic Information
| Print publication date: 2016 |
Print ISBN-13: 9780190603649 |
| Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2016 |
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001 |
