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Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models$
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Lawrence R. Klein

Print publication date: 1991

Print ISBN-13: 9780195057720

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.001.0001

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Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States: A New Round of Model Comparisons

Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States: A New Round of Model Comparisons

Chapter:
(p.18) Chapter 2 Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States: A New Round of Model Comparisons
Source:
Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models
Author(s):

F. Gerard Adams

Lawrence R. Klein

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0002

This chapter focuses on the response of the various econometric models to a number of alternatively specified external shocks. Altogether, 11 model groups supplied simulation results for the model comparisons. These groups represent a cross section of the currently active model operators and forecasters. They run from the now traditional Keynesian to the monetarist and the rational expectations approaches. The participating model groups and the special characteristics of their models are listed in the chapter. Early in the meetings of the model comparison seminar, the philosophy of model comparisons was a topic of some extensive discussion. The approach was to compare alternative “disturbed” model solutions to a base solution. Each model operator was instructed to prepare a so-called “tracking solution” that would approximately reproduce history over the period 1975 to 1984.

Keywords:   external shocks, econometric models, model comparisons, model operators, disturbed model, tracking solution, economic forecasting

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