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A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

Abstract

Ward Edwards is well known as the father of behavioral decision making. In his 1954 Psychological Bulletin paper on decision making, he brought psychological ideas into what had been the province of economists. His influence in this realm is so pervasive that the Nobel committee was able to trace a direct path from Edwards's work to Daniel Kahneman's 2002 Prize for prospect theory. In a 1963 Psychological Review paper, Edwards brought Bayesian statistics to the attention of psychologists, who have continued to proliferate Bayesian ideas, underscoring the importance of the perspective. In a 196 ... More

Keywords: Ward Edwards, behavioral decision making, prospect theory, Daniel Kahneman, Bayesian ideas, multiattribute utility analysis

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2008 Print ISBN-13: 9780195322989
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2009 DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Jie W. Weiss, editor
California State University, Fullerton

David J. Weiss, editor
California State University, Los Angeles

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Contents

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Front Matter

Title Pages

Contributors to Papers Written for this Volume

Introduction by the Editors

Introduction to the List of Ward Edwards’s Publications

Chronological List of Publications Written or Co-Authored by Ward Edwards

PART 1 Papers on Behavioral Decision Theory

1 The Theory of Decision Making

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

2 Behavioral Decision Theory

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

3 Probability Learning in 1000 Trials

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

4 Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

5 Subjective Probabilities Inferred from Decisions

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

6 Conservatism in a Simple Probability Inference Task

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

7 JUDGE: A Laboratory Evaluation

Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

8 Bayesian and Regression Models of Human Information Processing: A Myopic Perspective

Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

9 Choices Among Bets by Las Vegas Gamblers: Absolute and Contextual Effects

Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

10 Hailfinder: Tools for and Experiences with Bayesian Normative Modeling

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

PART II Papers on Statistics and Methodology

11 Costs and Payoffs Are Instructions

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

12 Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

13 Tactical Note on the Relation Between Scientific and Statistical Hypotheses

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

14 Boredom-Induced Changes in Preferences Among Bets

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

15 Human Cognitive Capabilities, Representativeness, and Ground Rules for Research

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

16 Costs and Payoffs in Perceptual Research

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

17 Murder and (of?) the Likelihood Principle: A Trialogue

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

18 A Mean for All Seasons

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

19 The Clinical Significance Decision

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

20 The Measurement of Behavior: Indices and Standards

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

PART III Papers on Diagnosis

21 Subjective Probabilities in Medical Diagnosis

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

22 N = 1: Diagnosis in Unique Cases

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

23 Divide and Conquer: How to Use Likelihood and Value Judgments in Decision Making

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

24 Likelihood Ratios as a Measure of the Diagnostic Usefulness of Excretory Urogram Information

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

25 Diagnosis and Treatment

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

PART IV Papers On Multiattribute Utility

26 Public Values: Multiattribute-Utility Measurement for Social Decision Making

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

27 How to Use Multiattribute Utility Measurement for Social Decisionmaking

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

28-A Multiattribute Utility Measurement: Evaluating Desegregation Plans in a Highly Political Context

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

28-B Reflections on and Criticisms of a Highly Political Multiattribute Utility Analysis

Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

29 Evaluating Credit Applications: A Validation of Multiattribute Utility Weight Elicitation Techniques

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

30 SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved Simple Methods for Multiattribute Utility Measurement

Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

31 Decision Technology

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

32 The Puzzle of Adolescent Substance Initiation

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

33 Big Decisions, Little Decisions: The Hierarchy of Everyday Life

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

34 The Clinical Decision Tree of Oral Health in Geriatrics

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

35 Why Is a Bird in the Hand Worth Two in the Bush?

Jie W Weiss, and David J Weiss

PART V Obituaries

36 Obituary

Dennis G Fryback

37 Obituary

Lawrence D Phillips

38 Obituary

David J Weiss, and James Shanteau

End Matter

INDEX