NEW CONCEPTS AND METHODS—PRE-BAYESIAN ERA
NEW CONCEPTS AND METHODS—PRE-BAYESIAN ERA
After James Bernoulli, the main contributors to probability theory and its applications in the 18th century worked either to solve more intricate problems of games of chance (De Moivre), or to build new probability models (De Moivre, Daniel Bernoulli). Further, some of them used probabilistic arguments to test hypotheses about or to estimate parameters involved in probability models for real life phenomena in the fields of demography, astronomy, and theory of errors. The concept of continuous variables, the tool of generating functions, the normal model approximation to the binomial, and ‘the rational expectation principle’ (in the context of the St. Petersburg Paradox) emerged out of these studies.
Keywords: Arbuthnott, testing, De Moivre, generating functions, normal model, Simpson, continuous variables, estimation, Daniel Bernoulli, St. Petersburg Paradox
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