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Beyond Experiments in Development EconomicsLocal Economy-wide Impact Evaluation$
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J. Edward Taylor and Mateusz J. Filipski

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780198707875

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198707875.001.0001

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A Continuum of Models for Any Situation

A Continuum of Models for Any Situation

3 (p.53) A Continuum of Models for Any Situation
Beyond Experiments in Development Economics

J. Edward Taylor

Mateusz J. Filipski

Oxford University Press

This chapter shows how to build local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) models, using the stylized village economy of Chapter 2 as an illustration. The chapter takes readers through a series of modeling approaches, from the simplest SAM multipliers to the most elaborate general equilibrium LEWIE models, disentangling the assumptions underlying each along the way. The stylized meta-SAM is used to parameterize the basic model. Each model is used to analyse the impact of a cash transfer on the stylized village economy under a range of modeling assumptions. Conditions are shown under which simulated impacts of the transfer in the project-area economy converge towards SAM multipliers. The chapter also presents validation methods, including a Monte Carlo technique to construct confidence intervals around simulation results and ways to use experimental results to corroborate and update LEWIE models. The stylized models are available in an online appendix.

Keywords:   impact evaluation, general equilibrium, spillovers, economic simulation, poverty, economic development, welfare analysis, LEWIE, SAM multiplier, Monte Carlo

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