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Beyond Experiments in Development EconomicsLocal Economy-wide Impact Evaluation$
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J. Edward Taylor and Mateusz J. Filipski

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780198707875

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198707875.001.0001

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Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala

Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala

Chapter:
8 (p.166) Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala
Source:
Beyond Experiments in Development Economics
Author(s):

J. Edward Taylor

Mateusz J. Filipski

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198707875.003.0008

Rising global food prices and price volatility create an imperative to understand the impacts of food price shocks in low-income countries. In an era of growing trade integration, global prices are more likely to be transmitted to producers and consumers. This chapter presents a rural economy-wide model that nests micro models of subsistence and commercial households. It uses this model to explore the impact of global corn-price trends on the welfare of different household groups in rural Guatemala. A rural economy-wide compensating variation is used to measure welfare outcomes. Higher food prices benefit large-farm households. However, contrary to findings from aggregate general-equilibrium models, most rural household groups lose, as higher consumption costs more than offset the nominal income gains they get from higher food prices.

Keywords:   food-price shocks, globalization, rural welfare, Guatemala, welfare analysis, compensating variation, trade liberalization, subsistence, agricultural household

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