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Beyond Experiments in Development EconomicsLocal Economy-wide Impact Evaluation$
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J. Edward Taylor and Mateusz J. Filipski

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780198707875

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198707875.001.0001

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Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala

Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala

8 (p.166) Evaluating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks in Rural Guatemala
Beyond Experiments in Development Economics

J. Edward Taylor

Mateusz J. Filipski

Oxford University Press

Rising global food prices and price volatility create an imperative to understand the impacts of food price shocks in low-income countries. In an era of growing trade integration, global prices are more likely to be transmitted to producers and consumers. This chapter presents a rural economy-wide model that nests micro models of subsistence and commercial households. It uses this model to explore the impact of global corn-price trends on the welfare of different household groups in rural Guatemala. A rural economy-wide compensating variation is used to measure welfare outcomes. Higher food prices benefit large-farm households. However, contrary to findings from aggregate general-equilibrium models, most rural household groups lose, as higher consumption costs more than offset the nominal income gains they get from higher food prices.

Keywords:   food-price shocks, globalization, rural welfare, Guatemala, welfare analysis, compensating variation, trade liberalization, subsistence, agricultural household

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