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Global EnergyIssues, Potentials, and Policy Implications$
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Paul Ekins, Mike Bradshaw, and Jim Watson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780198719526

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198719526.001.0001

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Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction

(p.499) 24 Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction
Global Energy

Christophe McGlade

Olivier Dessens

Gabrial Anandarajah

Paul Ekins

Oxford University Press

This chapter examines the feasibility of limiting the average global temperature rise, using the latest version of the TIAM-UCL global integrated assessment model. Given the continuing delay in implementing a global agreement on GHG emission reduction, we first examine the window of opportunity for continuing to increase emissions while still limiting the average surface temperature rise. The chapter constructs a number of specific scenarios leading to different long-term temperature increases to explore the resource and technology needs implied in each. It focuses in particular on the dynamics of coal-to-gas switching, and on the decarbonization of the electricity sector. The differences in mitigation and costs between high-, middle-, and low-income regions are also discussed. Finally, the chapter compares the rates of technology deployment required in the emissions mitigation scenarios with deployment rates observed historically.

Keywords:   integrated assessment modelling, mitigating climate change, emissions reduction, low-carbon technologies

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