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Analogies and TheoriesFormal Models of Reasoning$
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Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson, and David Schmeidler

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780198738022

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198738022.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 09 March 2021

The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals

The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals

(p.163) 6 The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals
Analogies and Theories

Itzhak Gilboa

Larry Samuelson

David Schmeidler

Oxford University Press

This chapter extends a model of belief formation that encompasses counterfactuals. In the context of this model, the chapter asks how counterfactuals can be used for prediction. It develops the model based on the unified model of induction presented in Gilboa, Samuelson, and Schmeidler (2010). It then deals with prediction with the aid of counterfactuals, showing that counterfactuals cannot add anything to a logically omniscient agent's predictive ability. Next, the chapter discusses the extent to which counterfactuals can be valuable in enhancing the prediction of boundedly rational agents.

Keywords:   belief formation, counterfactuals, prediction, rational agents, induction, unified model

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