The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals
The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals
This chapter extends a model of belief formation that encompasses counterfactuals. In the context of this model, the chapter asks how counterfactuals can be used for prediction. It develops the model based on the unified model of induction presented in Gilboa, Samuelson, and Schmeidler (2010). It then deals with prediction with the aid of counterfactuals, showing that counterfactuals cannot add anything to a logically omniscient agent's predictive ability. Next, the chapter discusses the extent to which counterfactuals can be valuable in enhancing the prediction of boundedly rational agents.
Keywords: belief formation, counterfactuals, prediction, rational agents, induction, unified model
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