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After the CrisisReform, Recovery, and Growth in Europe$
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Francesco Caselli, Mário Centeno, and José Tavares

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780198754688

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198754688.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 24 January 2022

Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe

Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe

(p.109) 5 Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe
After the Crisis

Carlo A. Favero

Vincenzo Galasso

Oxford University Press

Demographic trends in Europe do not support empirically the secular stagnation hypothesis. The evidence in this chapter shows that the age structure of population generates less long-term growth but positive real rates. Policies for growth become very important. The relevance of the demographic structure is assessed for the choice between macro adjustments and structural reforms. It is shown that middle aged and elderly individuals have a more negative view of reforms, competitiveness, and globalization than young. The results suggest that older countries, in terms of share of elderly people, should lean more towards macroeconomic adjustments, whereas younger nations will be more supportive of structural reforms.

Keywords:   stochastic mortality, growth, real interest rates, Europe

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