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The Methodology and Practice of EconometricsA Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry$
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Jennifer Castle and Neil Shephard

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780199237197

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2009

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199237197.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 05 December 2020

Forecasting in Dynamic Factor Models Subject to Structural Instability *

Forecasting in Dynamic Factor Models Subject to Structural Instability *

(p.173) 7 Forecasting in Dynamic Factor Models Subject to Structural Instability*
The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics

James H. Stock

Mark W. Watson

Oxford University Press

This chapter assesses forecasts constructed using dynamic factor models for their reliability in the face of structural breaks. Dynamic factor models have had notable empirical forecasting successes, but there has been little work to date on the performance of factor-based macroeconomic forecasts under structural instability. In factor models, even if factor loadings are unstable, if the instability is sufficiently independent across series then the estimated factors could be well estimated even if individual relations between the observable series and the factors are unstable. This chapter first lays out the implications for forecasting of different types of structural instability in dynamic factor models, provides a new empirical investigation (using US data for 144 quarterly macroeconomic time series) of factor-based forecasting with potential instability, and investigates separately the effects of structural change on the estimation of the factors and on the use of those factors for forecasting.

Keywords:   dynamic factor models, structural breaks, instability, time-varying factor models, factor loadings

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