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The Methodology and Practice of EconometricsA Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry$
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Jennifer Castle and Neil Shephard

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780199237197

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2009

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199237197.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 02 December 2020

Internal Consistency of Survey Respondents' Forecasts: Evidence Based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters *

Internal Consistency of Survey Respondents' Forecasts: Evidence Based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters *

Chapter:
(p.206) 8 Internal Consistency of Survey Respondents' Forecasts: Evidence Based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters*
Source:
The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics
Author(s):

Michael P. Clements

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199237197.003.0008

This chapter asks whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. It compares the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compares the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these different types of forecasts do not hold for some individuals, the chapter considers whether the discrepancies observed are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.

Keywords:   rationality, probability forecasts, probability distributions, asymmetric loss

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