To market insurance successfully, insurers need to know the extent of the risk proposed, in order to decide whether to take the risk at all and, if so, what premium to charge and what conditions to impose. Broadly viewed, the risk contains two major elements. The first is risk on the ground, the obvious question of how likely it is that the insured event will occur. The second is harder to tie down. Most of what the insurer promises is to pay money in the event of loss; and for insurers a risky feature of promising money at some time in the future is inflation.
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