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Predicting Party SizesThe Logic of Simple Electoral Systems$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2007

Print ISBN-13: 9780199287741

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001

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The Mean Duration of Cabinets

The Mean Duration of Cabinets

(p.165) 10 The Mean Duration of Cabinets
Predicting Party Sizes

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

Again the quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’. The inverse square law of cabinet durations says that the mean cabinet duration in a country is approximately forty-two years divided by the square of the effective number of parties. In institutional terms, mean cabinet duration is approximately the inverse of the cube root of the seat product. This quantitatively predictive logical model agrees with the world averages. The results are approximate, because other factors enter.

Keywords:   inverse square law, cabinet durations, seat product, assembly size, district magnitude, effective number of parties, quantitatively predictive logical model

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