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Predicting Party SizesThe Logic of Simple Electoral Systems$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2007

Print ISBN-13: 9780199287741

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 16 January 2021

The Law of Minority Attrition

The Law of Minority Attrition

(p.201) 13 The Law of Minority Attrition
Predicting Party Sizes

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A party with a small share of seats gets an even smaller share of seats, and the precise figure depends on assembly size and the total number of voters. The law of minority attrition might also help determine which part of the ‘rubber ceiling’ on women's advancement is natural and which part is socially imposed.

Keywords:   rubber ceiling, women's advancement, assembly size, number of voters, share of minorities, quantitatively predictive logical model

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