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Predicting Party SizesThe Logic of Simple Electoral Systems$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2007

Print ISBN-13: 9780199287741

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001

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The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR

The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR

(p.225) 14 The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR
Predicting Party Sizes

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

Using nothing but the product of assembly size and district magnitude, a quantitatively predictive logical model allows us to estimate the average effective number of parties based on votes. Average deviation from proportional representation can also be estimated from this seat product, within plus or minus four percentage points. When estimating the likely effect of changes in electoral laws on the party system and deviation from PR, the past tendencies in the given country also must be taken into account.

Keywords:   seat product, assembly size, district magnitude, effective number of parties, proportional representation, quantitatively predictive logical model, party system

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