- Title Pages
- <b>Preface</b>
- <b>List of Figures</b>
- <b>List of Tables</b>
- <b>List of Symbols</b>
- 1 <b>How Electoral Systems Matter</b>
- 2 <b>The Origins and Components of Electoral Systems</b>
- 3 Electoral Systems—Simple and Complex
- 4 <b>The Number and Balance of Parties</b>
- 5 <b>Deviation from Proportional Representation and Proportionality Profiles</b>
- 6 <b>Openness to Small Parties: The Micro‐Mega Rule and the Seat Product</b>
- Part II <b>The Duvergerian Macro‐Agenda: How Simple Electoral Systems Affect Party Sizes and Politics</b>
- 7 <b>The Duvergerian Agenda</b>
- 8 <b>The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share</b>
- 9 <b>Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties</b>
- 10 <b>The Mean Duration of Cabinets</b>
- 11 <b>How to Simplify Complex Electoral Systems</b>
- 12 <b>Size and Politics</b>
- 13 <b>The Law of Minority Attrition</b>
- 14 <b>The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR</b>
- Part III <b>Implications and Broader Agenda</b>
- 15 <b>Thresholds of Representation and the Number of Pertinent Electoral Parties</b>
- 16 <b>Seat Allocation in Federal Second Chambers and the Assemblies of the European Union</b>
- 17 <b>What Can We Expect from Electoral Laws?</b>
- APPENDIX <b>Detecting Factors Other than the Seat Product</b>
- <b>References</b>
- <b>Index</b>
The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR
The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR
- Chapter:
- (p.225) 14 The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR
- Source:
- Predicting Party Sizes
- Author(s):
Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
Using nothing but the product of assembly size and district magnitude, a quantitatively predictive logical model allows us to estimate the average effective number of parties based on votes. Average deviation from proportional representation can also be estimated from this seat product, within plus or minus four percentage points. When estimating the likely effect of changes in electoral laws on the party system and deviation from PR, the past tendencies in the given country also must be taken into account.
Keywords: seat product, assembly size, district magnitude, effective number of parties, proportional representation, quantitatively predictive logical model, party system
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- Title Pages
- <b>Preface</b>
- <b>List of Figures</b>
- <b>List of Tables</b>
- <b>List of Symbols</b>
- 1 <b>How Electoral Systems Matter</b>
- 2 <b>The Origins and Components of Electoral Systems</b>
- 3 Electoral Systems—Simple and Complex
- 4 <b>The Number and Balance of Parties</b>
- 5 <b>Deviation from Proportional Representation and Proportionality Profiles</b>
- 6 <b>Openness to Small Parties: The Micro‐Mega Rule and the Seat Product</b>
- Part II <b>The Duvergerian Macro‐Agenda: How Simple Electoral Systems Affect Party Sizes and Politics</b>
- 7 <b>The Duvergerian Agenda</b>
- 8 <b>The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share</b>
- 9 <b>Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties</b>
- 10 <b>The Mean Duration of Cabinets</b>
- 11 <b>How to Simplify Complex Electoral Systems</b>
- 12 <b>Size and Politics</b>
- 13 <b>The Law of Minority Attrition</b>
- 14 <b>The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR</b>
- Part III <b>Implications and Broader Agenda</b>
- 15 <b>Thresholds of Representation and the Number of Pertinent Electoral Parties</b>
- 16 <b>Seat Allocation in Federal Second Chambers and the Assemblies of the European Union</b>
- 17 <b>What Can We Expect from Electoral Laws?</b>
- APPENDIX <b>Detecting Factors Other than the Seat Product</b>
- <b>References</b>
- <b>Index</b>
