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Predicting Party SizesThe Logic of Simple Electoral Systems$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2007

Print ISBN-13: 9780199287741

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001

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The Duvergerian Agenda

The Duvergerian Agenda

(p.101) 7 The Duvergerian Agenda
Predicting Party Sizes

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

Starting with the characteristics of the electoral systems, the ‘Duvergerian agenda’ aims at predicting the average seat and vote share distributions of parties, the effective number of parties, and deviation from proportional representation. In the case of simple electoral systems, prediction of seat shares of parties and cabinet duration has become possible. Simple electoral systems are those that use a usual proportional representation formula or First-Past-The-Post, so that assembly size and district magnitude tell most of the story.

Keywords:   electoral systems, simple electoral systems, prediction of seat shares, cabinet duration, proportional representation, First-Past-The-Post, assembly size, district magnitude

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