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Predicting Party SizesThe Logic of Simple Electoral Systems$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2007

Print ISBN-13: 9780199287741

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001

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The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share

The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share

(p.115) 8 The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share
Predicting Party Sizes

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

The quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’ — the product of the assembly size and district magnitude. The number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the fourth root of the seat product. The fractional seat share of the largest party is approximately the inverse of the eighth root of the seat product. This quantitatively predictive logical model agrees with the world averages. The results are approximate, because other factors are present.

Keywords:   seat product, assembly size, district magnitude, number of parties, quantitatively predictive logical model

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