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Predicting Party SizesThe Logic of Simple Electoral Systems$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2007

Print ISBN-13: 9780199287741

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001

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Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties

Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties

(p.143) 9 Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties
Predicting Party Sizes

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

As with Chapter 8, the ‘seat product’ is the important quantity to watch. The effective number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the sixth root of the seat product. The average seat shares of second-largest and third-largest parties also can be calculated from the seat product. This quantitatively predictive logical model agrees with the world averages. The results are approximate, because other factors enter.

Keywords:   seat product, assembly size, district magnitude, effective number of parties, seat share, second-largest party, quantitatively predictive logical model

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