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Food Security in the Middle East$
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Zahra Babar and Suzi Mirgani

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199361786

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199361786.001.0001

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Prospects For Food Self-Sufficiency In Iran In 2025

Prospects For Food Self-Sufficiency In Iran In 2025

Chapter:
(p.115) 5 Prospects For Food Self-Sufficiency In Iran In 2025
Source:
Food Security in the Middle East
Author(s):

Habibollah Salami

Toktam Mohtashami

Mohamad Saeid Noori Naeini

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199361786.003.0005

Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has sought food self-sufficiency as a major objective in its economic development. This chapter provides a review of the conditions for food self-sufficiency in Iran, examining the past trends of self-sufficiency, and attempting to provide some critical analysis for what the prospects of food self-sufficiency in 2025 look like for Iran. This study projects the demand and supply of major food commodities in Iran for the year 2025, and hence forecast both levels of national food self-sufficiency and food per capita consumption. These projections are based on a policy simulation model which is an integration of the multimarket partial equilibrium model, the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model, and time series econometric models, and which includes equations of supply and demand, trade, price transmission and market equilibrium. The chapter concludes that Iran is close to agricultural commodity self-sufficiency based on domestic supply and demand for food.

Keywords:   Iran, Islamic Revolution, food self-sufficiency, policy simulation model, multimarket partial equilibrium, Positive Mathematical Programming, time series econometric, supply and demand

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