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Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Preventions$
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Charles H. Anderton and Jurgen Brauer

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780199378296

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199378296.001.0001

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Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling of Genocides and Other Mass Atrocities

Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling of Genocides and Other Mass Atrocities

Chapter:
(p.569) 24 Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling of Genocides and Other Mass Atrocities
Source:
Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Preventions
Author(s):

Charles R. Butcher

Benjamin E. Goldsmith

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199378296.003.0024

In this chapter we assess the current utility and future promise of a number of economic variables for predicting genocides and other mass atrocities. We begin with a discussion of the differences between quantitative models designed for prediction and those designed for purposes such as correlation or hypothesis testing of causal arguments. We then conduct two surveys. The first covers the latter literature in regard to its use of important economic variables; the second focuses on the relatively small number of forecasting models. Finally, we suggest avenues to potentially improve the inclusion and use of economic variables in forecasting models directed at early warning efforts and, ultimately, atrocity prevention.

Keywords:   genocides, mass atrocities, economics, quantitative models, forecasting

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