Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures: Scenario Planning for International Politics
Michael Oppenheimer
Abstract
In our world of increasing complexity and accelerating change, no grand strategy—no matter how well conceived—can be sustained without quick adaptation to events. All strategies rest on assumptions about how the world works, and rapid change is a persistent threat to these assumptions. Without alertness to change and its consequences for existing strategy, risk accumulates and unpleasant surprise becomes a certainty. Alternate futures, if done rigorously and embedded in the decision process, can alert leadership to impending challenges to strategy, and enable testing of potential course correc ... More
In our world of increasing complexity and accelerating change, no grand strategy—no matter how well conceived—can be sustained without quick adaptation to events. All strategies rest on assumptions about how the world works, and rapid change is a persistent threat to these assumptions. Without alertness to change and its consequences for existing strategy, risk accumulates and unpleasant surprise becomes a certainty. Alternate futures, if done rigorously and embedded in the decision process, can alert leadership to impending challenges to strategy, and enable testing of potential course corrections or, if needed, of new approaches. In a world of diffusing power, improved alertness, agility, and adaptability are essential requirements for strategic success. Alternate scenarios can help us think and act strategically.
Keywords:
alternate futures,
scenario,
surprise,
strategy,
anticipation,
agility,
uncertainty,
complexity,
risk,
preparation
Bibliographic Information
Print publication date: 2016 |
Print ISBN-13: 9780199397099 |
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2015 |
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199397099.001.0001 |