Not War, Not Peace?: Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism
George Perkovich and Toby Dalton
Abstract
India confronts an exceptionally difficult national security problem: how to motivate Pakistan to prevent cross-border terrorism. That both countries possess nuclear weapons significantly complicates this challenge. If India applies too much force against Pakistan in an escalating conflict, it could prompt the use of nuclear weapons. But too little threat may be insufficient to motivate Pakistani leaders to act as India needs. Not War, Not Peace? examines India’s options in developing an effective strategy. It assesses the feasibility and potential risks and benefits of army-centric ground cam ... More
India confronts an exceptionally difficult national security problem: how to motivate Pakistan to prevent cross-border terrorism. That both countries possess nuclear weapons significantly complicates this challenge. If India applies too much force against Pakistan in an escalating conflict, it could prompt the use of nuclear weapons. But too little threat may be insufficient to motivate Pakistani leaders to act as India needs. Not War, Not Peace? examines India’s options in developing an effective strategy. It assesses the feasibility and potential risks and benefits of army-centric ground campaigns, precision air strikes, covert operations, and non-violent activities to leverage India’s soft power. A separate chapter analyses whether and how changes in nuclear forces and doctrine could augment India’s strategy. The conclusion explores whether a combination of both coercive and non-violent options and capabilities, paired with a willingness for dialogue, would most effectively serve Indian interests. Drawing on extensive interviews with senior serving and retired Indian and Pakistani officials, Not War, Not Peace? bridges a gap in the international security literature between theories of nuclear deterrence and counterterrorism strategy, and provides rigorous analysis of India’s options to motivate Pakistan’s behaviour while staying left of nuclear ‘boom’.
Keywords:
international security,
military strategy,
nuclear,
international relations,
terrorism,
India,
Pakistan,
South Asia,
counterterrorism,
covert operations
Bibliographic Information
| Print publication date: 2016 |
Print ISBN-13: 9780199467495 |
| Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016 |
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199467495.001.0001 |
Authors
Affiliations are at time of print publication.
George Perkovich, author
Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment, International Peace.
Toby Dalton, author
Co-Director of the Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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