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Making Social Sciences More ScientificThe Need for Predictive Models$
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Rein Taagepera

Print publication date: 2008

Print ISBN-13: 9780199534661

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2008

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001

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All Hypotheses Are Not Created Equal

All Hypotheses Are Not Created Equal

(p.71) 6 All Hypotheses Are Not Created Equal
Making Social Sciences More Scientific

Rein Taagepera (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

The null hypothesis offers close to null prediction. Directional hypotheses are relatively easy to satisfy and offer correspondingly vague predictions. Quantitative hypotheses (models) are hard to satisfy and offer quantitatively falsifiable predictions. The customary hypothesis-testing recipe in social sciences, “hypothesis → data collection → testing → acceptance/rejection,” is only a single cycle in an ascending spiral. Having “p=.01” does NOT mean confirmation in 99% of replications.

Keywords:   directional hypotheses, hypothesis testing, null hypothesis, quantitatively falsifiable predictions, quantitative hypotheses and models, replication

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