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Southern Engines of Global Growth$
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Amelia U. Santos-Paulino and Guanghua Wan

Print publication date: 2010

Print ISBN-13: 9780199580606

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2010

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580606.001.0001

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Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?

Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?

(p.77) 5 Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?
Southern Engines of Global Growth

Maurizio Bussolo

Rafael E. De Hoyos

Denis Medvedev

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

Oxford University Press

Over the past twenty years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little, even if significant structural changes have been observed. The high growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's global general equilibrium model LINKAGE and the newly developed global income distribution dynamics (GIDD) tool, this chapter assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class—a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account—as the GIDD does—income dynamics between and within countries.

Keywords:   China, global income distribution dynamics, India, middle class

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