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Chance and Temporal Asymmetry$
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Alastair Wilson

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199673421

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199673421.001.0001

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Autonomous Chances and the Conflicts Problem

Autonomous Chances and the Conflicts Problem

Chapter:
(p.45) 2 Autonomous Chances and the Conflicts Problem
Source:
Chance and Temporal Asymmetry
Author(s):

Christopher J. G. Meacham

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199673421.003.0002

In recent work, Callender and Cohen (2009) and Hoefer (2007) have proposed variants of the account of chance proposed by Lewis (1994). One of the ways in which these accounts diverge from Lewis’s is that they allow special sciences and the macroscopic realm to have chances that are autonomous from those of physics and the microscopic realm. A worry for these proposals is that autonomous chances may place incompatible constraints on rational belief. This chapter examines this worry, and attempts to determine (i) what kinds of conflicts would be problematic, and (ii) whether these proposals lead to problematic conflicts. By working through a pair of cases, it is argued that these proposals do give rise to problematic conflicts. Some morals are considered.

Keywords:   Chancen, credence, Hume, Principal Principle, chance-credence principles, Hoefer, Callender, Cohen

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