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A History of EconometricsThe Reformation from the 1970s$
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Duo Qin

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199679348

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679348.001.0001

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Case Study One—Modelling the Phillips Curve

Case Study One—Modelling the Phillips Curve

(p.76) 5 Case Study One—Modelling the Phillips Curve
A History of Econometrics

Qin Duo

Oxford University Press

This chapter examines the history of econometrics through a case study of the Phillips curve, ie econometric modelling of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on a number of questions: What econometric tools did modellers choose to use in modelling the Phillips curve? How did their choices help shape the ways that they obtained, interpreted and theorised the empirical evidence? How did the different concerns and problems that they encountered feed back into the development of econometrics? This study reveals that much of the interaction between econometrics and economics involved modellers making certain trade-offs between theory and data, and their different positions generated disputes, factions, and confusion. It also reveals that the history of econometric modelling of the Phillips curve mirrors the evolving process of how the CC structural modelling paradigm has become consolidated, challenged, reformed, or abandoned.

Keywords:   Phillips Curve, inflation, unemployment, causality, citation analysis

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