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A History of EconometricsThe Reformation from the 1970s$
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Duo Qin

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199679348

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679348.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 23 July 2021

Case Study Two—Modelling Business Cycles

Case Study Two—Modelling Business Cycles

Chapter:
(p.96) 6 Case Study Two—Modelling Business Cycles
Source:
A History of Econometrics
Author(s):

Qin Duo

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679348.003.0007

This chapter examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis mainly during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the CC approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. It also shows how the research has branched into various directions, such as the DSGE based model simulations for theory verification, device of various cyclical measures, among which forecasting has remained the least successful. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

Keywords:   forecasting, business cycle, time-series econometrics, detrending, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)

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