Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
A History of EconometricsThe Reformation from the 1970s$
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content.

Duo Qin

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199679348

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679348.001.0001

Show Summary Details
Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 23 July 2021

Case Study Two—Modelling Business Cycles

Case Study Two—Modelling Business Cycles

(p.96) 6 Case Study Two—Modelling Business Cycles
A History of Econometrics

Qin Duo

Oxford University Press

This chapter examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis mainly during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the CC approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. It also shows how the research has branched into various directions, such as the DSGE based model simulations for theory verification, device of various cyclical measures, among which forecasting has remained the least successful. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

Keywords:   forecasting, business cycle, time-series econometrics, detrending, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)

Oxford Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.

Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs , and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us .