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Rome's Economic Revolution$
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Philip Kay

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199681549

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: April 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199681549.001.0001

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Forecasting the Past

Forecasting the Past

(p.268) (p.269) 11 Forecasting the Past
Rome's Economic Revolution

Philip Kay

Oxford University Press

In this highly conjectural chapter, a probabilistic quantification is constructed of real per capita economic growth in Italy between 150 and 50 bc. The methodology is to produce estimates of Italian GDP at three different dates (150, 100, and 50 bc). By comparing the GDP estimates for each date, it may be possible to see whether real per capita economic growth occurred. For each date, an attempt is made to reconstruct GDP by producing estimates from the income side. Then, based on the limited data available, plausible estimates of expenditure GDP are produced that fit satisfactorily with the income estimates. Finally, hypothetical numbers for the Italian money supply and its velocity of circulation are constructed that also fit with the income GDP estimates. These three different approaches are unlikely to be even remotely accurate taken individually, but together they give some degree of probabilistic plausibility.

Keywords:   quantification, economic growth, Italy, methodology, GDP, expenditure GDP, income GDP, money supply, velocity of circulation

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