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The Architecture of CollapseThe Global System in the 21st Century$
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Mauro F. Guillén

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780199683604

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683604.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 07 December 2021

The Future of the Global System

The Future of the Global System

(p.168) 7 The Future of the Global System
The Architecture of Collapse

Mauro F. Guillén

Oxford University Press

The evolution of the global system and its subcomponents over the last six decades can be traced in terms of complexity and coupling. Financial companies, and the financial sector as a whole, have become more complex and coupled, even in spite of the correction of 2008. The most important bilateral relationship in the world, that between China and the U.S., and the most complex trade bloc, the European Union, have become enormously complex, though not excessively coupled. By contrast, the Euro Zone is the world’s most complex and tightly-coupled subsystem. The overall global system has also evolved towards that extreme. As a result, disruptions, shocks, and crises have proliferated. The global system can only be made safer if the internal complexity of countries through democratic checks and balances, and state capacity, works to prevent the forces of network complexity and coupling from spelling disaster.

Keywords:   global system, financial sector, European Union, Euro Zone, complexity, coupling, democracy, state capacity

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