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HeuristicsThe Foundations of Adaptive Behavior$
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Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, and Thorsten Pachur

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780199744282

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199744282.001.0001

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Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?

Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?

(p.223) Chapter 10 Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?

Ulrich Hoffrage

Ralph Hertwig (Contributor Webpage)

Gerd Gigerenzer (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

With the benefit of feedback about the outcome of an event, people's recalled judgments are typically closer to the outcome of the event than their original judgments were. It has been suggested that this hindsight bias may be due to a reconstruction process of the prior judgment. A model of such a process is proposed that assumes that knowledge is updated after feedback and that reconstruction is based on the updated knowledge. Consistent with the model's predictions, the results of two studies show that knowledge after feedback is systematically shifted toward feedback, and that assisting retrieval of the knowledge prior to feedback reduces hindsight bias. In addition, the model accounts for about 75% of cases in which either hindsight bias or reversed hindsight bias occurred. The chapter concludes that hindsight bias can be understood as a by-product of an adaptive process, namely the updating of knowledge after feedback.

Keywords:   memory, fast-and-frugal heuristics, hindsight bias, inference

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