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Who Wins? – Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict - Oxford Scholarship Online
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Who Wins?: Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict

Patricia Sullivan


Despite their immense war-fighting capacity, the five most powerful states in the international system have failed to attain their primary political objective in almost 40% of their military operations against weak state and non-state targets since 1945. Why are these states so often unable to attain their objectives when they use force against weaker adversaries? More broadly, under what conditions can states use military force to attain their political objectives and what conditions limit the utility of military force as a policy instrument? Can we predict the outcome of a war before the fig ... More

Keywords: war, international system, military operations, military force, strategy, strategic success, fighting capacity, conflict

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2012 Print ISBN-13: 9780199878338
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012 DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.001.0001


Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Patricia Sullivan, author
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill