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Who Wins?Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict$
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Patricia Sullivan

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199878338

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.001.0001

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Interstate Dispute Outcomes, 1919–2001

Interstate Dispute Outcomes, 1919–2001

(p.91) Chapter 5 Interstate Dispute Outcomes, 1919–2001
Who Wins?

Patricia L. Sullivan

Oxford University Press

The preceding chapter presented a set of testable hypotheses derived from the war aims model and several rival theories of armed conflict outcomes. This chapter conducts large-n empirical tests of some of these predictions. In a series of statistical analyses, it explores the effects of relative military capabilities, the balance of interests, and the nature of states' war aims on the escalation and outcome of disputes between states. To evaluate hypotheses about the probability of conflict escalation, it examines all dispute dyads in the Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Disputes dataset between 1919 and 2001. It tests hypotheses about the outcomes of conflicts that have escalated to mutual hostilities on those disputes in which both sides use military force and the fighting lasts for more than one day.

Keywords:   war aims model, armed conflict outcomes, statistical analyses, military capabilities, balance of interests

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