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Who Wins?Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict$
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Patricia Sullivan

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199878338

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 17 April 2021

Military Interventions by Powerful States:

Military Interventions by Powerful States:

At What Price Victory?

(p.106) Chapter 6 Military Interventions by Powerful States:
Who Wins?

Patricia L. Sullivan

Oxford University Press

This chapter asks why states with tremendous capabilities and resources—the most powerful in the world—are often unable to attain even limited objectives through the use of military force against much weaker adversaries. The primary goal is to identify the conditions under which powerful states achieve their political objectives when they use military force against weak targets and the factors that limit their ability to use force as a policy instrument. Of particular interest is how the nature of a strong state's political objectives affects the likelihood that the state will attain its war aims. The first section of this chapter briefly describes the dependent, explanatory, and control variables used in the quantitative analyses in this chapter. The second presents a series of statistical models exploring the effects of these factors on the outcomes of major military operations by five of the most powerful states in the international system.

Keywords:   powerful states, war outcomes, military force, weak states, political objectives, military operations

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