The Overlooked Organizational Basis of Trump’s 2016 Victory
The Overlooked Organizational Basis of Trump’s 2016 Victory
Conventional wisdom claims that the Trump 2016 campaign was “disorganized,” but this judgment overlooks bargains with leaders of preexisting federated networks connected to millions of voters in pivotal states. Newly found data about the Fraternal Order of Police, the white police union, show that lodge and membership locations help predict Trump margins beyond other pro-GOP variables. Trump deliberately appealed to white police anger at the Black Lives Matter movement and (in a departure from his typical mass rallies) spoke in front of law-enforcement audiences. Similarly, Trump and his top lieutenants courted Christian right pastors and National Rifle Association leaders willing to disseminate campaign messages and mobilize followers in exchange for Trump’s promise to nominate right-wing Supreme Court justices. Many voters outside of big cities were receptive because they are embedded in evangelical and gun-friendly social networks and believe their lifeways are threatened by outside, liberal forces.
Keywords: Fraternal Order of Police, National Rifle Association, NRA, Donald Trump, evangelical Christians, Jerry Falwell Jr., Hillary Clinton, gun owners, Supreme Court, Second Amendment
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