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The Logic of American Nuclear StrategyWhy Strategic Superiority Matters$
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Matthew Kroenig

Print publication date: 2018

Print ISBN-13: 9780190849184

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: February 2018

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190849184.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 25 July 2021

The Correlates of Nuclear Crisis Outcomes

The Correlates of Nuclear Crisis Outcomes

Chapter:
(p.65) 3 The Correlates of Nuclear Crisis Outcomes
Source:
The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy
Author(s):

Matthew Kroenig

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780190849184.003.0004

Does the nuclear balance of power matter for nuclear coercion? To answer this question, this chapter conducts a large-N statistical analysis, examining empirical evidence from high-stakes crises between nuclear-armed states. Drawing on a quantitative analysis of a data set of fifty-two nuclear crisis dyads that includes information on nuclear arsenal size and delivery vehicles, the chapter examines the impact of nuclear superiority on nuclear crisis outcomes. It finds a powerful relationship between nuclear superiority and victory in nuclear crises. Specifically, nuclear superior states are over ten times more likely than nuclear inferior states to achieve their basic goals in international crises. In sum, this chapter provides strong empirical support for the central argument of this book. Nuclear superiority matters not just for nuclear war outcomes but also in international crises between nuclear-armed adversaries.

Keywords:   nuclear, crisis, outcome, superiority, balance, resolve, brinkmanship, stakes, Cuban Missile Crisis

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