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War and Chance – Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics - Oxford Scholarship Online
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War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics

Jeffrey A. Friedman


War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the book shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims ... More

Keywords: international relations, national security, decision making, uncertainty, risk assessment, probability, forecasting, intelligence analysis, political psychology, survey experiments

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2019 Print ISBN-13: 9780190938024
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: April 2019 DOI:10.1093/oso/9780190938024.001.0001


Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Jeffrey A. Friedman, author
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Dartmouth College