Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Interrupted Time Series Analysis$
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content.

David McDowall, Richard McCleary, and Bradley J. Bartos

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780190943943

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: February 2021

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190943943.001.0001

Show Summary Details
Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2022. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use.date: 27 May 2022

Into the Future

Into the Future

(p.154) 6 Into the Future
Interrupted Time Series Analysis

David McDowall

Richard McCleary

Bradley J. Bartos

Oxford University Press

Chapter 6 introduces two conceptual issues that, in our opinion, will become important in the near future. The first involves the validity of statistical inference. Critics of the conventional null hypothesis significance test generally focus on the undue influence of sample size on p-values and the common misinterpretation of significance levels. Bayesian approaches address and, to some extent, solve both shortcomings. The second conceptual issue involves the use of control time series. As a rule, valid causal inferences require the use of a contrasting control time series. In most instances, no ideal control series is available; however, a synthetic ideal control series can sometimes be constructed from an ensemble of less-than-ideal control time series.

Keywords:   Counterfactual, Synthetic Control, SUTVA, placebo test, robustness, manipulation, natural experiment, random assignment, interference

Oxford Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.

Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs , and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us .