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War and Peace in SomaliaNational Grievances, Local Conflict and Al-Shabaab$
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Michael Keating and Matt Waldman

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780190947910

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: June 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190947910.001.0001

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Determinants of Success

Determinants of Success

Analysis of Peace Initiatives in South-Central Somalia

(p.155) Determinants of Success
War and Peace in Somalia

Galymzhan Kirbassov

Oxford University Press

This chapter analyzes the factors that determine the success of peace initiatives in Somalia. First, the intensity of conflict before the peace agreement is signed negatively affects the duration of peace. The higher the rate of fatalities during a conflict, the higher the likelihood that the peace agreement that followed it will fail. Second, military capabilities of the disputing clans determine if the peace agreement will succeed in sustaining. Imbalance of military capability reduces the likely duration of peace because the stronger clan may have incentives to renege on the peace accord. Third, third-party enforcement of peace accords by a credible and capable actor is a crucial element of sustainable peace. The enforcer monitors the implementation of the peace agreement and can credibly threaten to punish non-compliance.

Keywords:   Somalia, peacemaking, peace initiatives, peace agreement, military capability, conflict, peace accords, sustainable peace

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