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Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources$
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P.J. Lee and Jo Anne DeGraffenreid

Print publication date: 2008

Print ISBN-13: 9780195331905

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2020

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780195331905.001.0001

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Concluding Remarks

Concluding Remarks

(p.174) 8 Concluding Remarks
Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources

P.J. Lee

, Jo Anne DeGraffenreid
Oxford University Press

The procedure and steps of petroleum resource assessment involve a learning process that is characterized by an interactive loop between geological and statistical models and their feedback mechanisms. Geological models represent natural populations and are the basic units for petroleum resource evaluation. Statistical models include the superpopulation, finite population, and discovery process models that may be used for estimating the distributions for pool size and number of pools, and can be estimated from somewhat biased exploration data. Methods for assessing petroleum resources have been developed using different geological perspectives. Each of them can be applied to a specific case. When we consider using a particular method, the following aspects should be examined: • Types of data required-Some methods can only incorporate certain types of data; others can incorporate all data that are available. • Assumptions required-We must study what specific assumptions should be made and what role they play in the process of estimation. • Types of estimates-What types of estimates does the method provide (aggregate estimates vs. pool-size estimates)? Do the types of estimates fulfill our needs for economic analysis? • Feedback mechanisms-What types of feedback mechanism does the method offer? PETRIMES is based on a probabilistic framework that uses superpopulation and finite population concepts, discovery process models, and the optional use of lognormal distributions. The reasoning behind the application of discovery process models is that they offer the only known way to incorporate petroleum assessment fundamentals (i.e., realism) into the estimates. PETRIMES requires an exploration time series as basic input and can be applied to both mature and frontier petroleum resource evaluations.

Keywords:   discovery process model, economic analysis, feedback mechanism, geological model, lognormal distribution, resource assessment, statistical models

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