New Paradigm Psychology of Conditional Reasoning and Its Philosophical Sources
New Paradigm Psychology of Conditional Reasoning and Its Philosophical Sources
There is a new Bayesian, or probabilistic, paradigm in the psychology of reasoning, with new psychological accounts of the indicative conditional of natural language and of conditional reasoning. Dorothy Edgington has had a major impact on this new paradigm, through her views on inference from uncertain premises, the relation between the probability of the indicative conditional, P(if p then q), and the conditional probability, P(q|p), and the use of the Ramsey test to evaluate conditionals. Accounts are given in this chapter of the psychological experiments in the new paradigm that confirm empirical hypotheses inspired by her work and other philosophical sources.
Keywords: Bayesian reasoning, psychology of reasoning, conditional reasoning, conditional probability, Ramsey test
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