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Conditionals, Paradox, and ProbabilityThemes from the Philosophy of Dorothy Edgington$
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Lee Walters and John Hawthorne

Print publication date: 2021

Print ISBN-13: 9780198712732

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2021

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198712732.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (oxford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2022. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use.date: 05 July 2022

New Paradigm Psychology of Conditional Reasoning and Its Philosophical Sources

New Paradigm Psychology of Conditional Reasoning and Its Philosophical Sources

Chapter:
(p.58) 5 New Paradigm Psychology of Conditional Reasoning and Its Philosophical Sources
Source:
Conditionals, Paradox, and Probability
Author(s):

David Over

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198712732.003.0005

There is a new Bayesian, or probabilistic, paradigm in the psychology of reasoning, with new psychological accounts of the indicative conditional of natural language and of conditional reasoning. Dorothy Edgington has had a major impact on this new paradigm, through her views on inference from uncertain premises, the relation between the probability of the indicative conditional, P(if p then q), and the conditional probability, P(q|p), and the use of the Ramsey test to evaluate conditionals. Accounts are given in this chapter of the psychological experiments in the new paradigm that confirm empirical hypotheses inspired by her work and other philosophical sources.

Keywords:   Bayesian reasoning, psychology of reasoning, conditional reasoning, conditional probability, Ramsey test

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