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East Asia's Other MiracleExplaining the Decline of Mass Atrocities$
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Alex J. Bellamy

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780198777939

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2017

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198777939.001.0001

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Future Trajectories

Future Trajectories

(p.267) 9 Future Trajectories
East Asia's Other Miracle

Alex J. Bellamy

Oxford University Press

This chapter looks to the future and asks whether the low incidence of mass atrocities experienced in the first decades of the twenty-first century is here to stay. There is nothing inevitable about the current trend and it could certainly be reversed, but the factors that facilitated the region’s transformation in the first place are likely to continue to push political leaders away from perpetrating atrocities. As a result, mass atrocities are likely to remain rare and exceptional for the foreseeable future. To understand just how resilient, this chapter examines five potential challenges: great power conflict sparked by the rise of China, challenges to political authority in non-democratic states, the risk of nationalism caused by a sustained economic downturn, challenges to state consolidation stemming from non-state armed groups and violent extremists, and heightened competition for resources and territory in a context of climate change.

Keywords:   great powers, nationalism, terrorism, climate change, violent extremism

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