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Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa$
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Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo

Print publication date: 2018

Print ISBN-13: 9780198785811

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: April 2018

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198785811.001.0001

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Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

(p.61) Chapter 4 Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Giovanni Melina

Rafael Portillo

Oxford University Press

The chapter compares business cycle fluctuations in sub-Saharan African countries to the rest of the world. Its main results are: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated in SSA countries; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; and (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports. The chapter provides a tentative interpretation in terms of the main shocks hitting these economies and the nature of the mechanisms amplifying or dampening these shocks.

Keywords:   Economic fluctuations, business cycles, developing countries, low-income countries, sub-Saharan Africa

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